Military Drone Export Controls Intensify, U.S.-China Tech Decoupling Accelerates

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Update time : 2025-05-20

Weapons Evolution: From Reconnaissance to AI Swarm Attacks
Turkey’s Bayraktar TB3 drones executed history’s first AI swarm strike in Ukraine, where 12 drones destroyed a 300k cost. Their decentralized communication protocol allows surviving drones to autonomously regroup after losses. Raytheon rushed production of Coyote anti-swarm drones, now priced at 20k previously.

Chip Wars: China Achieves 98% Domestic Military Drone Components
U.S. BIS banned sub-5nm chips for military drones, spurring CETC 55 Institute’s breakthrough in GaN-on-Si T/R modules with 48% efficiency (vs Raytheon’s 52%). Wing Loong-10 drones upgraded with Chinese chips extended reconnaissance range to 320km (from 200km) but suffered 17% shorter endurance due to higher power consumption.

Gray Markets: Third-Party Export Shell Games
Iran imported DJI Mavic 3 drones via Azerbaijan, retrofitting thermobaric warheads used by Russia to destroy 237 Ukrainian armored vehicles. DJI activated "Geofencing 2.0" in 120 countries, triggering drone shutdowns in conflict zones. Yet hackers sell jailbroken firmware at 8x retail price on dark web forums.

Global Governance: Autonomous Weapons Deadlock
The UN CCW Convention added clauses requiring human control over lethal autonomous weapons. U.S.-China disagreements persist: Washington advocates "command responsibility," while Beijing demands full prohibition. Geneva talks stalled as 96 nations demanded killer drone bans.


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